MLE kwERA 2012
Here, presented without comment, are the top 100 Major League Equivalent kwERA’s for minor league pitchers during the 2012 season (pitchers with more than 100 batters faced). Players are listed by the...
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An Extra 5 Miles per Hour
These are the run expectancy changes due to 90 and 95 mph pitches (thrown by a right-handed pitcher to a right-handed batter) by location (as seen from the catcher’s point of view). If you’re a...
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An Extra 5 Miles per Hour… v.2
Revisiting my last post, I thought it would make more sense to focus on the region in and immediately around the strike zone and to create smoother plots (click to zoom in). And here is a plot...
View ArticleOh, the Dreaded Bias!
Two days ago, Dave Cameron wrote about the players Steamer and Zips disagree on the most, showing that Steamer is a little down on Jurickson Profar, Bryce Harper and a few others. In the comments,...
View ArticleUpdated Steamer Projections
Our updated projections include three important additions: *Hiroyuki Nakajima, Kyuji Fujikawa and Hyun-Jin Ryu have been added. *Pitcher ERAs now take into account our team defense projections. This...
View ArticleMarch Madness: Individual Player Pools
There’s an individual player pool at my wife’s office. To help out, I matched seasonal PPG with Nate Silver’s projected bracket (to determine how many games each player is expected to play in) and...
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Adjusting Regression Means
Strikeouts are up, walks are down and we’d changed by not changing at all. As Tango recently pointed out, Steamer was looking a a little pessimistic this year. Really, we were just a little behind the...
View ArticleThe Rosenheck Factor
Dan Rosenheck showed that pitchers who get more pop ups and more swings and misses in the strike zone tend to have lower BABIPs and lower ERAs. Steve Saude also wrote about this back in October. As...
View ArticleFinal 2013 Steamer Projections
The final batch of Steamer Projections (for posterity, I suppose) welcomes Jose Fernandez and reluctantly accepts that Johan Santana is out for the year. You can find them here.
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The Hollow Under the Knee
Dave Cameron recently suggested that the rise in strikeouts over the last 6 years could be at least partially due to changes in umpiring. On The Book Blog forum, mcbrown focused in on 0-0 counts with...
View ArticleESPN Insider: The Right “Stuff”
Here’s our first ESPN Insider piece. I might follow up here with more on the methodology if folks are interested.
View ArticleESPN Insider: One-pitch Aces
Check out Dash's analysis of these unique pitchers who are trying to replicate Mariano Rivera's method of mastering one pitch in order to dominate the competition....
View ArticleJose Abreu
Our projections for Jose Abreu and Alexander Guerrero are up on Fangraphs. Abreu gets a monster projection. His .401 wOBA projection is the 3rd highest in baseball. Obviously, this has a great deal of...
View ArticleJose Abreu… still a stud
We’re backing off just a bit from our stunning original Jose Abreu projection. His projected line, which was .292/.381/.554, is now .279/.364/.518 making him roughly the 12th best hitter in the game....
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A Series of Random Events
This sounds like good advice but since it’s the dead of winter, we’ll have to generate the numbers ourselves. Thanks to R, this should be no problem. I’ll give each batter 2000 independent trials each...
View ArticleWere they ever .500 ?
\(\) A team has m wins and n losses. What is the probability that, at some point in the season, they had a .500 record? I posed this question over on the book blog and Kincaid presented the following...
View ArticleUpdated Save Projections
We’ve updated our save projections so that now they take advantage of information from the Fangraph Fan Ballots in addition to the Fangraphs Depth Charts. Before the update, our system was quite...
View ArticleNow with Fangraphs Park Factors
Steamer has officially adopted Fangraphs Parks Factors, the differences are considerably larger than I might have expected and I think we can all feel good about this change. Park factors were never...
View ArticleAdjusted Regression Levels
Our previous regression levels for hitters were too high and didn’t fully reflect the lower offensive levels we’ve been seeing in the last couple of years. Our new lower levels knock hitters down by...
View ArticleUpdated Fielding Projections
As of this morning, we’ve updated our fielding projections. There are two major changes in the way we’re cooking this year’s fielding projections. First, these are now based on more data: 5 past...
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